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Unread postPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 5:33 pm 
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VenomousPinecone wrote:
Thats essentially how I feel about. The experts and authorities are still human, so they make mistakes and make educated guesses.


Yes... and that in the best of cases... because it seems there is a lot of people that left behind educated guesses to just take prophecies as only guide. Of course: -Who am I to criticize them? But anyway, I can't share their apocalyptic enthusiasm; and mostly because I would not follow anyone without a proof of concept...

But, hey! ...I enjoy Class-B movies a lot, so... why not? ...there is no reason to not save some rations of beans, bullets, bandaids and bullion just in case the wind blows too much and the thin veneer of civilization finally peels away! ;)

Anyway... honestly, despite the fact that such a massive event would be a very impressive experience to watch (even if last one!), I have to accept that it would also take away the chance to see how we manage to squeeze the energy from our planet, our sun, our galaxy, how we manage to open worm holes, travel in time, visit extra-solar places, etc. ...now way, Sir: the game is not finished yet! :P

VenomousPinecone wrote:
Enrico Fermi once told Freeman Dyson that with four arbitrary parameters he could fit an elephant, with five he could make the trunk wiggle.


Heheh!, indeed! Very good quote!

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Unread postPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 6:07 pm 
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VenomousPinecone wrote:
GeneratriX wrote:
Same here... if the meteorogical service can't predict correctly the possibility of rain along a term of half of a week, I can't see how anyone else could predict a massive event for his next several hundreed/thousand years... no way. Those are patrañas, or whatever you call them.

Thats essentially how I feel about. The experts and authorities are still human, so they make mistakes and make educated guesses.

You guys have to be joking. I'm oldish for nekochan but not by geological terms ... within my lifetime, glaciers disappearing - glaciers that I used to go drink beer on - polar ice disappearing, ocean pH changing, the damned sea lions moving out of San Francisco ... no wars to reduce the population for the past fifty years, medicine keeping too many cripples alive, people turning into fruitcakes ... if you can't see that there's some big trouble ahead then you're in serious denial.

Here's what makes me think it's over : people seem to have lost their brains somewhere. For thirty years the right-wing in the US has been chanting "get government off the backs of business !" (we can see how well that turned out.) So when this SEC thing comes out, the same people moan and whine "Why were these people surfing the web for porn when they were supposed to be protecting us ?" No one says anything about the conflict here ? Or the way a good half the population has been screaming "Drill ! Drill ! Drill ! who cares about the damned caribou / fish / wildlife ?" Now that the Gulf of Mexico is on its way to becoming the LaBrea Tar Pits, all the same people are snivelling that "Obama didn't do enough ! Why didn't the government stop these people ?" We're big on "personal responsibility" as long as it's not us who has to be responsible ?

If people want to be right-wingers or left-wingers or believe that Jesus speaks to them through the towel dispenser in the executive bathroom, I don't care. But puh-lease, at least stick to the same idiot doctrine you've been spouting for the past twenty years ?

It's as if people couldn't recognize truth if it rose up out of the grunter and bit them in the ass. There is obviously massive operpopulation, overconsumption, overcapacity, serious issues with the world we live on and cannot escape and a disconnect from reality. Yeah, the Maya thing is stupid ... but the impending doom is not. Chanting "Even scientists are human" is ... less than honest with yourself.

Every single disaster of the past fifty years has been predictable and predicted but no one would listen. There's not a chance in hell that people will actually do what it's going to take, so there ya go. Fifty bucks says humanity will not make it to the next century.

I'll put the money in escrow :P


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Unread postPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 6:55 pm 
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Fifty bucks says humanity will not make it to the next century.
If we're going down, I'm going down drunk and swing dancing. :mrgreen:

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Unread postPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 6:58 pm 
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Hey there, Hamei!

hamei wrote:
Here's what makes me think it's over : people seem to have lost their brains somewhere.


Not me, my friend. But maybe I was not too specific with the subject. I'm not asking if you think the global warming is for real, or if you think that there are some (very noticeables, indeed!) environmental changes around, or if human stupidity growns up every day... I already know all of these things are already happening!

My real question was/is: "-Do you really think that at some point at the middle of 2012, the planet will blow up as per act of magic, just because the hopies, the mayans, and lately, Nostradamus predicted it?

I answer for myself: -No, I don't think so! And not even for a second!

But if you are asking if I think the planet, the tectonic plates, the human kind, the fauna, the flora, and our atmosphere are all of them healthy... my answer is: -No, I don't think so! ...the planet is mostly screwed up!

On the latest vacations I've taken with family one of the rivers where I accustomed to swim it was completely dried... only dry stones to see there... is this normal? No way. I visit these lands since 1974 and it never happened before.

But the case is... I don't think that everything will end at middle of the stupid 2012. Maybe it will end on around 50, 500, 5000, or 50000 years... but on couple years? ...I don't think so!

hamei wrote:
It's as if people couldn't recognize truth if it rose up out of the grunter and bit them in the ass. There is obviously massive operpopulation, overconsumption, overcapacity, serious issues with the world we live on and cannot escape and a disconnect from reality. Yeah, the Maya thing is stupid ... but the impending doom is not. Chanting "Even scientists are human" is ... less than honest with yourself.


Yeah, I see the point... but I don't think the planet or the human kind will dissapear because operpopulation, overconsumption, overcapacity... or at least in less than a couple hundreed years... and for the case, we could also end conquered and squeezed by a bunch of aliens or anything else... it is another possibility too...

hamei wrote:
Every single disaster of the past fifty years has been predictable and predicted but no one would listen. There's not a chance in hell that people will actually do what it's going to take, so there ya go. Fifty bucks says humanity will not make it to the next century.

I'll put the money in escrow :P


Predictable?: Probably! Avoidable?: I Doubt!
...you know ...all the real massive events ...call them tsunamis, earthquakes, or whatever you want, all of them are mostly unavoidable. The most powerful forces of nature are all of them colossals in magnitude... nothing to do against them.

Anyway, there are tons of many other things that are just mankind's resposability... all of them avoidable... and even there nothing is done to avoid them... so, why not? Maybe you're right and TEOTW is close... but not in 2012!

Fifty bucks says humanity will make it to -at least- up to 2013! :P

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Unread postPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 7:09 pm 
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Since there's no delete button, I'll simply replace this post with something fabulous.

Image

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Last edited by Frapazoid on Mon May 03, 2010 7:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Unread postPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 7:17 pm 
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Yeah, I see the point... but I don't think the planet or the human kind will dissapear because operpopulation, overconsumption, overcapacity...


I think the next period is gonna be pretty rough, but honestly I see humans being around for a loooooooooong time.

My bet is on millions of years.

Other species have done it. Crocs. Crocs are my favorite beast.

Are we stupid? Of course. Can we blow our leg off? We could almost completely kill ourselves off in 2 hours with a few button pushes. Will we? Maybe! And in 50 years we won't even remember what lesson we were supposed to learn.

It just won't be the end.

It'll just really, really suck, but still.

I think people can't imagine human civilization lasting because, other than constantly fantasizing about it for the entirety of human history, our written history isn't that long so we have absolutely no mental image of what a million year old civilization would even look like.

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Unread postPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 7:25 pm 
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Frapazoid wrote:
No delete button?

for the record, the delete button goes away once a new post is made. like this one. muahahaha!

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Unread postPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 7:42 pm 
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I used a workaround.

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Unread postPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 11:35 pm 
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Hey there, Frap!

Frapazoid wrote:
I think the next period is gonna be pretty rough, but honestly I see humans being around for a loooooooooong time.

My bet is on millions of years.


I don't know if for as much as millions years... at least in this planet... but yes, I think humans are pretty adaptable.

Frapazoid wrote:
I think people can't imagine human civilization lasting because, other than constantly fantasizing about it for the entirety of human history, our written history isn't that long so we have absolutely no mental image of what a million year old civilization would even look like.


Indeed! ...and just that is a real challenge! Honestly, every time I try to imagine that, I imagine the human kind travelling the space. I don't think a single planet can support for such a sustained growth for a single specie for a lot of time... but well... who knows! :)

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Unread postPosted: Tue May 04, 2010 12:46 pm 
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hamei wrote:
You guys have to be joking. I'm oldish for nekochan but not by geological terms ... within my lifetime, glaciers disappearing - glaciers that I used to go drink beer on - polar ice disappearing, ocean pH changing, the damned sea lions moving out of San Francisco ... no wars to reduce the population for the past fifty years, medicine keeping too many cripples alive, people turning into fruitcakes ... if you can't see that there's some big trouble ahead then you're in serious denial.


Human civilization, as we know it is based on a failed model of unsustainable agriculture and the parasite class that has been nurtured by an easily oppressed immobile victim class. This is not just my opinion, learned folks have written about agriculture as being "our" greatest mistake. It is easy to steal and think up clever ways to harm folks when you are not playing hunter/gatherer.

Yes, civilization as we know it has bestowed some amazing gifts upon the populace. These delightful technologies allow a greater aggregation of knowledge over a contracting timeline. The bulk of society uses this data for purposes that are not expanding the understanding of our cosmos in a direct fashion, yet indirectly their continued usage of life extending medical procedures and advanced communication networks for gaming is providing capital or at least a relatively stable base for further expansion of the underlying science. As usual it is the fringes of society that are expanding into the unknown territories of knowledge, not the idiot masses. This has always been the case, the scientist is a rebel venturing into the frontier.

This unsustainable behavior is pushing us toward a cliff (big trouble ahead), while some folks are scrambling to develop wings. Unpredictable disruptive technologies have saved earth from Old Media hyped crisis before, just check out Norman Borlaugh.

hamei wrote:
Here's what makes me think it's over : people seem to have lost their brains somewhere. For thirty years the right-wing in the US has been chanting "get government off the backs of business !" (we can see how well that turned out.) So when this SEC thing comes out, the same people moan and whine "Why were these people surfing the web for porn when they were supposed to be protecting us ?" No one says anything about the conflict here ? Or the way a good half the population has been screaming "Drill ! Drill ! Drill ! who cares about the damned caribou / fish / wildlife ?" Now that the Gulf of Mexico is on its way to becoming the LaBrea Tar Pits, all the same people are snivelling that "Obama didn't do enough ! Why didn't the government stop these people ?" We're big on "personal responsibility" as long as it's not us who has to be responsible ?

If people want to be right-wingers or left-wingers or believe that Jesus speaks to them through the towel dispenser in the executive bathroom, I don't care. But puh-lease, at least stick to the same idiot doctrine you've been spouting for the past twenty years ?


Politics is never the answer, and folks will continue to look to it for answers because it claims to be the great and powerful Oz. When you look behind the curtain you find the old charlatan, devoid of insight or usefulness. The myth is propagated because most folks seem to think the system can made to work for them, when in fact it has and will always work against the bulk of humanity for the benefit of a few, regardless of what policies or campaign rhetoric is spewed forth.

This is true in every situation, dating back to the dawn of agriculturalism and the first kings who had a mandate from some divine demon conjured for purely deceptive purposes. Control is the game that these parasites have been playing since they figured they could get a free meal if they dressed in funny clothes and provided false insight or arbitration.

hamei wrote:
It's as if people couldn't recognize truth if it rose up out of the grunter and bit them in the ass.


I am reminded of H.P. Lovecraft and his biocentrist insights into this matter. How exactly can a maggot crawling on a mud ball possibly know the truth. It is only deluding itself.

hamei wrote:
There is obviously massive operpopulation, overconsumption, overcapacity, serious issues with the world we live on and cannot escape and a disconnect from reality. Yeah, the Maya thing is stupid ... but the impending doom is not. Chanting "Even scientists are human" is ... less than honest with yourself.


Comparing the sum total of humanities grievances with the intoxicant fueled visions of a long dead priest class is not quite honest. 2012 is awfully close and the most alarmist forecasts for humanity turning our mudball into a hell parallel stretch out to around 50 years from now. The bulk of scientists feel that we have a hundred years, at the very least. In that time I hope that humanity becomes a tier 1 civilization, otherwise it will all be for not when a flying mountain in space collides with our planet and provides natures reset.

hamei wrote:
Every single disaster of the past fifty years has been predictable and predicted but no one would listen. There's not a chance in hell that people will actually do what it's going to take, so there ya go. Fifty bucks says humanity will not make it to the next century.

I'll put the money in escrow :P


It is politically inexpedient for the right thing to get done, it always has been. The proper choices will not be made until the only option is do or die. Pain is the best teacher and school is in session.


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Unread postPosted: Tue May 04, 2010 4:55 pm 
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It seems to me we're just getting started. I mean, we haven't had all this technology for but a hundred years and we're supposed to permanently destroy ourselves on it already?

I realize that we can do that now, but the way I see it, this century in front of us is the do or die moment. The ultimate test to see if Hamei is right or if we get to join the million year club.

Oil and fossil fuels are quite finite so scientist's predictions about CO2 pollution & global warming are beside the point. Even if they're wrong, we can't just stay on oil forever cause it will simply run out, and then we're boned.

We could say, as a metaphor, that God put it there to give us exactly one chance to start a civilization that can stick. Its a great big energy freebie. We can squander it, but it also gives us an opportunity to keep going. It lets you build the rockets, refine the uranium, manufacture the solar panels, pipes, power lines and hadron colliders that let you become that "tier 1" civilization. Do or die.

Just how bad CO2 is doesn't matter; there's no point in using the oil unless we're gonna use it to aggressively move off the oil to the next thing. Its not for desperately fighting over it so we can joyride til it runs out or we kill ourselves on it.

If it turns out that the scientists are wrong and we can cope with the pollution just fine, all that means is we'll last long enough for the free market to right-size us. Which will suck far, far more than certain people fantasize.

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Unread postPosted: Tue May 04, 2010 6:15 pm 
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Exactly. It is just like the grace period that is offered with some loans... you can use the resources for two (or whatever) years before to start to make payments. That's what God offered with this planet. Now... how much will last this period of grace? Who knows!

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Unread postPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 2:47 am 
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oh no! not another graph!

guys this ain't about science


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Unread postPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 5:40 am 
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fu wrote:
oh no! not another graph!

guys this ain't about science

You're right. It's about people who suddenly have the power to destroy everything around them just so they can have three cars, a 9,000 square foot mansion on a 3,000 square foot lot, two homes for "investments", drive an 8 litre turbocharged diesel dually because it's cool, destroy everything on earth that isn't more powerful than they are because all that counts to a rapacious shark is the bottom line, care for nothing except themselves, yeah. That's what it's about. That and the billion and a half people over here who have absolutely no taste or concern for anything else on earth either, and who've given up on any kind of idealism when faced with the possibility to pretend to be Impotent People with three bucks hidden in the mattress. Drill ! Drill ! Drill some more ! We need the oil !

Nope, I don't have much hope. When you realize it's all about people needing to do something good instead of being rotten little venal greedy ignorant pieces of shit, then the end result is pretty obvious.


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Unread postPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 9:45 am 
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hamei wrote:
Nope, I don't have much hope. When you realize it's all about people needing to do something good instead of being rotten little venal greedy ignorant pieces of shit, then the end result is pretty obvious.


HL Mencken said something about the Mob (people in general, not the mafia) being comprised of folks who have not made it beyond the ideas and emotions of childhood. I agree with that.

The major thing to remember Hamei is that these folks are not completely representative of humanity. Sure, 90% are mentally immature semi-illiterate morons, but those remaining 10% still seem to get shit done regardless of all the crabs in the bucket.

I don't share your pessimism.


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