Cryptocurrency?

For friendly off topic discussion not covered in a forum above.
Forum rules
No politics, please.
User avatar
Irinikus
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2016 4:25 am
Location: Cape Town, South Africa

Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby Irinikus » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:50 am

What are your thoughts as to the future of so-called cryptocurrencies.

I am not currently participating in this field but to me it seems rather worrying, as I have never before seen a market that offers such a large return on investment, which in my mind can only mean one thing. (this is a huge bubble) [the coins are hugely over valued]

How is a Bitcoin's value determined? As far as I am aware, it's determined by nothing more than what someone else is willing to pay for it.

The fact that it's perceived value is based on the Dollar or other currencies for that matter, means that it's not a currency at all, but an asset (a virtual asset). If actual currency such as the US dollar (Fiat Currency) had to fail and fall away, then how would it's value be determined then, seeing that it's value is based on that of Fiat Currency?

Are you really anonymous when you deal in Bitcoin (I don't know?), as far as I'm aware, the blockchain keeps record of every transaction ever conducted using Bitcoin for ever, so if the receiver of revenue ever received the mandate to audit the blockchain, what would that mean for people who have maid huge capital gain profits via bitcoin?

These are my thought's, what are yours? (Please correct me if I'm wrong in any of my thought's regarding this subject.)
Image ... Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image
Image ... Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image
Image ... Image
Image ... Image
Image ... Image Image Image
Image ... Image, Image, Image, Image Image ... Image, Image, Image, Image, Image, Image, Image
Image ... Image Image Image ... Image Image

User avatar
SiliconClassics
Posts: 1490
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:07 pm
Location: New York
Contact:

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby SiliconClassics » Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:52 am

Irinikus wrote:How is a Bitcoin's value determined? As far as I am aware, it's determined by nothing more than what someone else is willing to pay for it.


That's the problem: there's no way to put a value on Bitcoin since it doesn't generate any sort of return, so it all comes down to what people are willing to pay, which currently seems to be based entirely on how much they expect it to rise in the coming weeks. That's a pure asset bubble and when it bursts the price will collapse catastrophically. Not saying Bitcoin is valueless, but it certainly isn't fundamentally worth 20x what it was last year. I wouldn't go near it at these prices. If I had the balls (and if it were possible) I would short it, but there's no telling how much higher it will go.

My coworkers, even the ones who have zero savvy about cryptocurrencies, are all buzzing about it and have been buying-in. These are the same coworkers who pool their money every week to buy lottery tickets. Bitcoin seems to trigger the same sort of endorphin rush for them, and this is no doubt happening with investors around the globe. At a certain point the buying becomes a panic as people rush to get in "before it's too late" - much like the terminal phase of the housing bubble in 2005/2006. That's when the end is near. Thankfully the Bitcoin burst won't collapse the global economy like the housing bust since it's mostly people gambling with their disposable income.

There are a lot of parallels with the 17th century Dutch tulip mania, and supposedly the Bitcoin bubble has now surpassed it as the greatest asset bubble in history.
Silicon Classics on: YouTube | Twitter | Google+

User avatar
guardian452
Donor
Donor
Posts: 3479
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:12 pm
Location: United States
Contact:

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby guardian452 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:40 am

"buy bitcoin with credit card" has been trending on google, which is about all you need to know.

IIRC CHC had purchased a butterflylabs miner a couple years ago. I ran a gpu miner for a few weeks on the radeon 5770 in my mac pro and could have made enough after the fees and everything to buy a coffee, but I never cashed out. It was nowhere close to a whole bitcoin even then. Probably lost money after paying the electric bill. This was in mid 2013. Ideally you would have been interested pre-2010 to actually make some money in it. Now that the financiers are interested I wouldn't touch it with a 39.5 foot pole.

It has some "real value" as a payment method for the black market but that's about it.


The one good side effect is that I purchased a GTX 1070 from Best Buy in 2016 for $449.99 and was able to sell it a year later for $590 on ebay.

SiliconClassics wrote:Thankfully the Bitcoin burst won't collapse the global economy like the housing bust since it's mostly people gambling with their disposable income.

There is a tremendous amount of natural resources being wasted to produce the hardware and energy necessary for mining. It's not just rich idiots wasting their money.

User avatar
pentium
Posts: 4763
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:29 pm
Location: Kamloops, BC

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby pentium » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:30 am

I seriously would not touch the stuff. It's ALL speculative. At this point now I would have less anxiety if I invested in stocks and bonds.
:Crimson: :Onyx: :O2000: :O200: :O200: :PI: :PI: :Indigo: :Indigo: :Indigo: :Octane: :O2: :1600SW: :Indigo2: :Indigo2: :Indigo2IMP: :Indigo2IMP: :Indy: :Indy: :Indy: :Cube:

Image <-------- A very happy forum member.

User avatar
commodorejohn
Posts: 668
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:22 pm
Contact:

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby commodorejohn » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:25 pm

It's all bottle-caps when you get right down to it. If somebody wants to play around and win some scratch while the bubble is still bubbling, well, more power to 'em, but I don't want to hear anybody wailing when it inevitably bursts.
Computers: Amiga 1200, DEC VAXStation 4000/60, DEC MicroPDP-11/73
Synthesizers: Roland JX-10/SH-09/HS-80/MT-32/D-50, Yamaha DX7-II/V50/TX7/TG33/FB-01, Korg MS-20 Mini/ARP Odyssey/DW-8000/M1, Ensoniq SQ-80, E-mu Emax HD/Proteus-2, Casio CZ-5000, Moog Satellite, Sequential Circuits Prophet-600

User avatar
itsvince725
Posts: 183
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2016 2:03 pm
Location: Quakertown, Pennsylvania, USA

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby itsvince725 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:47 pm

I really despise these people who act like they're so superior because they hitched themselves to a currency that could completely collapse tomorrow. And it's especially hilarious when they try to say that poor people could bootstrap their way out of poverty with Bitcoin, a currency which requires large quantities of electricity and a good $1000 or so of computer equipment to produce.

I'll stick with US dollars, sure they aren't always worth a whole lot but at least they're real.
:Indigo2: :Indy:

User avatar
SiliconClassics
Posts: 1490
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:07 pm
Location: New York
Contact:

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby SiliconClassics » Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:19 pm

Bitcoin crashed today, down from a high near $20,000 last week to a current price around $11,000. No telling where it goes from here but I wouldn't be surprised to see it make a head-and-shoulders top and then drop below $10,000 by early January. Then again, it could recover and rocket up to $30,000 in the same time frame. I'm still not touching it.

Tomorrow I'm meeting with a friend who mined for years and amassed several thousand of them, but sold when the price was still below $1,000. If he'd kept them all he would have had more than $50 million last week. Imagine seeing $25 million of your personal net worth wiped out in a matter of days? Yikes.
Silicon Classics on: YouTube | Twitter | Google+

User avatar
commodorejohn
Posts: 668
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:22 pm
Contact:

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby commodorejohn » Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:57 pm

I mean, at least with the tulip boom you could still grow some nice flowers after the bubble burst.
Computers: Amiga 1200, DEC VAXStation 4000/60, DEC MicroPDP-11/73
Synthesizers: Roland JX-10/SH-09/HS-80/MT-32/D-50, Yamaha DX7-II/V50/TX7/TG33/FB-01, Korg MS-20 Mini/ARP Odyssey/DW-8000/M1, Ensoniq SQ-80, E-mu Emax HD/Proteus-2, Casio CZ-5000, Moog Satellite, Sequential Circuits Prophet-600

User avatar
Raion-Fox
Donor
Donor
Posts: 1538
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2014 5:01 pm
Location: near King George, Virginia
Contact:

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby Raion-Fox » Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:47 pm

Cryptocurrency is a hobby, not a replacement for more traditional investments.
:O3x02L: R16000 700MHz 8GB RAM kanna
:Octane: R12000 300MHz SI 896MB RAM yuuka
:Octane2: R12000A 400MHz V6 2.5GB RAM
:Tezro: Quad R16000 700MHz V12 8GB RAM murasaki
:Indy: (Acclaim) R4600 133MHz XL Graphics 32MB RAM
:Indy: (Challenge S) R4600 133MHz (MIPS III Build Server)

I am probably posting from yangxiaolong, HP Z230 with Xeon E3-1230v3, 16GB RAM, GeForce 750ti, and running NetBSD and Windows 8.1 Embedded.
Owner and operator of http://irix.pw

User avatar
pentium
Posts: 4763
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:29 pm
Location: Kamloops, BC

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby pentium » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:12 pm

Raion-Fox wrote:Cryptocurrency is a hobby, not a replacement for more traditional investments.

The new kids on the block don't know this. They either think this is some hip way to make money (not limited to investing for people on their behalf with a promised return) or they are graduates in economics who think they are hot s*&# and know what they are doing.
I would of liked to see a full crash mind you. The last time it went somewhere south the bitcoin subreddit put a suicide hotline at the top of the page. Call me twisted but these are the kind of people we don't need touching real markets.
:Crimson: :Onyx: :O2000: :O200: :O200: :PI: :PI: :Indigo: :Indigo: :Indigo: :Octane: :O2: :1600SW: :Indigo2: :Indigo2: :Indigo2IMP: :Indigo2IMP: :Indy: :Indy: :Indy: :Cube:

Image <-------- A very happy forum member.

User avatar
zahal
Posts: 842
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 11:43 am

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby zahal » Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:08 pm

This will end in tears for a lot of people.
Sitting in a room.....thinkin' shit up. :evil:

:O2: 400MHz R12k - :320: Dual 600MHz PIII - HP Alphaserver DS15 - Digital DECstation5000/133 - Dell T3500 - Apple G4 Cube dual 500MHz/GF6200 - Newton Messagepad 2100 - Apple PowerBook 2400c/G3@240 - Apple PowerMacintosh 6100/66 - Apple PowerMacintosh 6500/G3@500MHz - Apple Workgroup Server 9150/120 G3@280 - Apple Macintosh IIfx - Apple Macintosh LC475 (OC Full 040 33MHz) - Apple Macintosh Color Classic (Full 040 40Mhz Mystic upgrade) - Sun Cobalt Cube 3 - EBOX 3300A-JSK - Tadpole RDI UltraBook IIi - Compaq Armada 4120 - Digital HiNote Ultra II - HP OmniBook 425 - HP 200LX - Crossbeam C12

User avatar
tomvos
Donor
Donor
Posts: 139
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 1:08 pm
Location: Aachen, Germany, Europe
Contact:

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby tomvos » Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:50 am

Irinikus wrote:The fact that it's perceived value is based on the Dollar or other currencies for that matter, means that it's not a currency at all, but an asset (a virtual asset). If actual currency such as the US dollar (Fiat Currency) had to fail and fall away, then how would it's value be determined then, seeing that it's value is based on that of Fiat Currency?


Every currency is (or at least was) the quantisation of the perceived value of an asset. E.g. for one dollar you can buy a certain amount of hamburgers. Once you have more than one currency you need to define how the value of one unit of currency A relates to one unit of currency B. Of course we could base our whole financial system on the value of hamburgers and use this to convert between different currencies. But for reasons of practicability (or financial domination for the tin hats among us) we decided to compare the value of different currencies against the dollar.

So I don't think that basing the value of crypto currencies on US$ is something that should be seen as a reason against crypto coins.

Personally, I think it's a bubble and a very interesting experiment at the same time. We never had a currency before which was solely driven by market forces. So lean back and enjoy the show. There might be some interesting lessons to be learned ... even if we learn how not to do things in the future. :)
:Fuel: :Octane2: :O2: :O2: :1600SW: :Indy: :Indy:
Where subtlety fails us we must simply make do with cream pies.

User avatar
Irinikus
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2016 4:25 am
Location: Cape Town, South Africa

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby Irinikus » Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:59 am

tomvos wrote:
So I don't think that basing the value of crypto currencies on US$ is something that should be seen as a reason against crypto coins.

Personally, I think it's a bubble and a very interesting experiment at the same time. We never had a currency before which was solely driven by market forces. So lean back and enjoy the show. There might be some interesting lessons to be learned ... even if we learn how not to do things in the future. :)


I agree with you completely, it's really going to be interesting to see how this ends. (I would just hate to be the last poor person to buy a Bitcoin when the high point is reached)
Image ... Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image
Image ... Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image
Image ... Image
Image ... Image
Image ... Image Image Image
Image ... Image, Image, Image, Image Image ... Image, Image, Image, Image, Image, Image, Image
Image ... Image Image Image ... Image Image

User avatar
Irinikus
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2016 4:25 am
Location: Cape Town, South Africa

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby Irinikus » Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:59 am

You cannot draw more energy from a system than you put into that system.

People (those who got in early) are only making money out of Bitcoin because others are buying into it. "Profits" are only being made by the few, because further down the line many others will loose. (there is finite amount of value in this system, as Bitcoin isn't producing anything to increase it's own value, such as shares in a business that actually produce goods)

Pure speculation!

Don't get me wrong, some form of cryptocurrency will in all probability be our global means of trade in the future (an appropriately regulated system), but what we're seeing currently is pure madness! (Almost like Black Friday in the US! Pure comedy!)
Image ... Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image
Image ... Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image
Image ... Image
Image ... Image
Image ... Image Image Image
Image ... Image, Image, Image, Image Image ... Image, Image, Image, Image, Image, Image, Image
Image ... Image Image Image ... Image Image

User avatar
commodorejohn
Posts: 668
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:22 pm
Contact:

Re: Cryptocurrency?

Unread postby commodorejohn » Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:48 am

Irinikus wrote:You cannot draw more energy from a system than you put into that system.

People (those who got in early) are only making money out of Bitcoin because others are buying into it. "Profits" are only being made by the few, because further down the line many others will loose. (there is finite amount of value in this system, as Bitcoin isn't producing anything to increase it's own value, such as shares in a business that actually produce goods)

This is the key, right here. The only demand for Bitcoin* is people buying into the market in hopes that they can convince other people to pay them more for the same thing later. Eventually that's going to stop looking like a winning proposition to potential newcomers, and then the real fun starts.

* (well, if you don't count Siberian prostitution rings and international heroin smuggling, anyway.)
Computers: Amiga 1200, DEC VAXStation 4000/60, DEC MicroPDP-11/73
Synthesizers: Roland JX-10/SH-09/HS-80/MT-32/D-50, Yamaha DX7-II/V50/TX7/TG33/FB-01, Korg MS-20 Mini/ARP Odyssey/DW-8000/M1, Ensoniq SQ-80, E-mu Emax HD/Proteus-2, Casio CZ-5000, Moog Satellite, Sequential Circuits Prophet-600


Return to “Everything Else”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests